Monkeypox : Now, and the future
UPDATE : 1 August
I thought Dean Street were giving the vaccine to all industry people. It seems that the whole thing is up in the air and changes daily, so might just be MSM, might be more generous . You might be lucky, or not. Women SW seem most likely to get rejected, so should emphasise they are in the industry, having a lot of sex. Suggestion is to also try Guys Hospital and get involved with SWARM Twitter – @SexWorkHive – who are involved seeking to sensibly expand access within the industry.
At heart this is down to limited supplies of vaccine and should ease once we have more, but I have no idea what the timeline for that is.
Original:-
Monkeypox is serious, and it’s here.
Will it kill you? Very unlikely. We have a good health service.
BUT take it seriously. It really is amazingly fucking painful, and it’s amazingly fucking painful for 2-3 weeks.
I have randomly dislocating knees and get migraines that last up to 3 days, and from what I gather, monkeypox is more painful than that.
CURRENTLY 28 July 2022, in UK, 2000+ men infected, 15 women, and it is on a doubling path, which means exponential growth. Currently doubling every 15 days. You know this maths, it’s the one that goes 1000, 2000, 4000, 8000, 16,000, 32,000, 64,000, 128,000, 256,000, 512,000, A MILLION.
Which implies, in the UK over the next year, if it breaks out to general population, we get to “everyone knows someone who got it”, UNLESS WE STOP IT. (Which we might, we’re still in the bottom box, esp if we can get vaccine supplies for the whole population before we get to the second box).
Transmission – close contact, but NOT an STI. Sex is close contact, but so is hugging, sharing a bed, breathing the same air (probably a same room/house as ill person thing rather than “OMG IT’s ON THE TUBE”), and rough and tumble play – like what children do. Monkeypox probably transmits way better than nits…
Vaccine : The vaccine at the moment is the one given for smallpox, which was a routine baby vaccine in the UK until 1971. It provides 85% protection, for life. 85% is good, but it’s not perfect. But, if you can get the vaccine, get the vaccine! Twitter @56DeanStreet have lots info, and outside London there are plenty places too. Right now there is NOT ENOUGH vaccine for everyone, hence targeting, but we qualify.
I’m not sure what the 85% actually means – that 85% of people vaccinated will never catch it, or if it’s like the covid jab where it means that makes it less serious, but you still get it. If you are medical and know, tell me and I’ll update.
Current outbreak seems to be mainly “gay party scene”, but public health experts expect it to break out into wider sex work and swinging, and everyone is very scared that there is then parent/child transmission and suddenly it’s in schools. Children often get it worse than adults.
Industry Impact : If the epidemic grows, the party and swingers scene is dead. People simply won’t want to attend unless they have been vaccinated, and maybe not even then if the vaccine simply makes it “a week of bad pain” instead of “2-3 weeks of AGGGHHHH!!!!!”.
If it breaks mainstream, nightclubs, fetish clubs, gigs, probably closed, probably for months. If party/gangbang scene is a major revenue stream for you, be saving money hard.
This winter could be one of huge costs (energy bills going stupid high, we already know that) and reduced income.
Maybe even 1-2-1 FSSW will be down too.
What to do?
Get vaccinated.
Try and maximise in person income over the summer.
Make and bank as much porn as possible with collabs, so you can keep releasing if we end up with a moratorium.